Embracing a bias to action
“Opportunities multiply as they are seized.” ― Sun Tzu
You probably have never heard of John Boyd.
First, he was a pilot. But not just a pilot, one of the best dogfighters of all time. Once he left the cockpit and moved to the Pentagon, things get even more interesting.
His posting at the Pentagon was to focus on the development of the next fighter jet. Procurement at the Pentagon being what it is, Boyd realized that the specifications for the new fighter were becoming so bloated that it was going to be expensive and not good at anything.
So quietly and secretly, he more or less single handedly developed a specification and proposal for a second plane - a largely unthinkable project. A new plane that outperformed the other proposed one and was a fraction of the cost to procure.
Boyd spent the end of his career taking what he had learned in the sky, in the Pentagon, and in the study of military history to answer the question of how military force is best applied in pursuit of victory.
The capstone of his work was a concept known as OODA loop. OODA - Observe, Orient, Decide, Act - is a simple way to understand how we all respond to any environmental change. We progress through each of the four steps each time we encounter something new.
We must observe the phenomenon. Orient ourselves to the information we are receiving. Decide how to respond. And the act upon our decision. This can happen slowly or quickly - but these steps are consistent.
Boyd’s key insight was that in a competitive scenario - like war - the ability to move quickly forces an opponent to begin their OODA loop cycle over. By moving more quickly, the enemy could be forced into an exceptionally limited ability to respond, opening the door to victory.
What I love about John Boyd (and Coram’s biography of him) is that he deeply understood first principles and then he acted boldly upon them. He dove deep to understand how and why something works. But he then was able to translate this understanding into decisive action.
As we began discussing in last week’s piece, the ability to engage and act is in short supply.
The complexity of our world makes it easy to become bogged down in analysis or in cynicism. The net effect is stasis.
But in a rapidly changing world, no position is secure. You don’t stand still in a lava field because the rock you are on could be quickly eroded.
Instead, you still have to move forward.
How then to shift to be more like John Boyd? To engage with a bias to action?
First, we can understand that speed (even with imperfect information) can sometimes lead to meaningful advantage. The fast fashion retailers first like Zara/H&M and now like Shein are able to see trends emerge more quickly and respond.
The way to move quickly is by making smaller bets. With a bias to action, scaling how much is at risk gives you greater confidence to move forward. If you only order 10 shirts, you have a relatively low stakes way to see if the product will sell. If you have to order 10,000, you are operating at a different level of risk.
This may sound good in a corporate context - but how does it apply to every day life? Let’s consider an example scenario - someone who wants to start a business. The big bet is to quit your job and invest your entire life savings into a single idea.
The faster, small bet would be to designate portions of your nights and weekends to start a ‘side hustle.’ This allows you to see if you have a good idea for a product or service and if there is indeed a market for it.
Second, developing a bias to action does not mean we have to ‘move fast and break things.’ Such a sentiment is a great sound bite, but doesn’t apply in much of the real world. A bias to action means removing bureaucracy.
Bureaucracy is simply a way to limit individual accountability by increasing process. If the process does not allow for single person's judgement at any point, then no one can be caught holding the bag.
Similarly, bet sizing, aka limiting your downside risk, is how you encourage people to risk being caught holding the bag.
You must limit how bad things could get - so their careers / livelihoods are not at risk from either a bad decision or a bad outcome. Keep in mind, bad outcomes sometimes happen even with thoughtfully made decisions. Bad luck sometimes occurs.
Finally, bias to action also means addressing procrastination and apathy. Procrastination is an active avoidance of what must be done. Apathy is passive avoidance. In my experience, both of these maladies are much more about psychology than anything else.
Fear, worry, depression - all can keep you from moving forward. If you want to do things of meaning and substance, you have to face them head on.
If you want to do them sooner, rather than later, the order of the day is action.
Questions to consider:
Where are you avoiding action - either through over-analysis, procrastination or apathy?
How can you make the perceived risk of action smaller?
How can you increase the speed of what you are already doing? Can you cut out waste or inefficiency? Can you get feedback more quickly to make adjustments?